The Fund materially surpassed its €1bn target owing to strong demand from a globally diverse group of investors including sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, insurance companies and asset managers.

The fundraise brings the total amount raised for the Metropolitan fund series to €2.2bn since its inception in 2022. The Portfolio is highly diversified, comprising approximately 100 institutional‑quality assets on long-term, inflation-linked leases. It offers ICG investors access to opportunistic returns within the European Industrial and Logistics sector, with assets typically sourced off-market through non-traditional routes, including proprietary sale-and-leaseback transactions with corporates. Metropolitan supports ICGRE’s standing as one of Europe’s largest owners of high-quality, long-duration, triple-net lease assets.

Krysto Nikolic, Global Head of ICG Real Estate, commented:

Benoît Durteste, CIO and CEO of ICG, added:

1. Of which c. $600m raised post 31 December 2025.

– Ends –

For further information please contact:

Clare Glynn
Head of Corporate Communications
+44 20 3545 1395
Clare.Glynn@icgam.com

Maisie Le Masurier
Corporate Communications
+44 20 3545 1624
Maisie.LeMasurier@icgam.com

About ICG

ICG (LSE: ICG) is a global alternative asset manager with $127bn* in AUM and more than three decades of experience generating attractive returns. We operate from over 20 locations globally and invest our clients’ capital across Structured Capital; Private Equity Secondaries; Private Debt; Credit; and Real Assets. Our exceptional people originate differentiated opportunities, invest responsibly, and deliver long-term value. We partner with management teams, founders, and business owners in a creative and solutions-focused approach, supporting them with our expertise and flexible capital. For more information visit our website and follow us on LinkedIn.

*As at 31 December 2025.

The post ICG Real Estate announces €1.4bn final close for second Metropolitan fund appeared first on ICG.

A wide range of ICG investment professionals will be in attendance, led by CIO and CEO Benoit Durteste.

Want to meet? Get in touch.

SuperReturn International brings together the global private markets community, with thousands of LPs and GPs from across Europe, North America, Asia and beyond.

The event offers an unrivalled opportunity to exchange views on market conditions, investment themes and the evolving private capital landscape.

There’s never been a better time to meet

We look forward to meeting clients, consultants and prospective partners to discuss:

• Current market dynamics and opportunities across private markets
• How we are supporting investors through different stages of the cycle
• How our flexible, long-term approach can help meet evolving client needs
  

Portfolio Managers and Investment Professionals attending from ICG include:

• Benoit Durteste – ICG CIO and CEO
• Peter Lockhead – Senior Debt Partners
• Mathieu Vigier – Senior Debt Partners
• Olivier Golder – European Mid-Market
• Adi Bhagwat – Strategic Equity
• Andrea Serra – Strategic Equity
• Oliver Gardey – LP Secondaries
• Vivien Blossier – LP Secondaries
• Colm Walsh – ICG Enterprise Trust
• Liza Lee Marchal – ICG Enterprise Trust

Arrange a meeting with ICG

If you’re attending SuperReturn International 2026 and would like to meet the ICG team, we’d be delighted to arrange a conversation during the event.

Get in touch with ICG’s Client Solutions Group at csg@icgam.com to book a meeting and let us know your availability.

We look forward to seeing you in Berlin!

The post Meet ICG at SuperReturn International 2026 appeared first on ICG.

Our base case remains that US/Israel strikes on Iran—and broader regional disruption—will be relatively short-lived (weeks not months), with energy prices reverting to close to pre-attack levels (likely with a residual risk premium), and have a moderate medium-term negative impact on global growth and inflation. However, in this highly volatile environment, the risk of more extended disruption remains high. 

Middle East conflict testing global economy’s resilience

• The ability of the US and partners to quickly restore flows through the Strait of Hormuz is critical and remains uncertain.
• Prolonged disruption to shipping and/or regional production would keep oil and gas prices higher for longer, weighing on global growth and keeping inflation elevated.
• Even in this downside case, we view the probability of a global recession as low with most estimates putting sustained Brent oil price of around $100/bbl taking around 0.5 percentage points off global growth and adding around one percentage point to inflation. But clearly there is a lot of uncertainty and country variation around these estimates.

Macro outlook

Why our base case remains that US/Israel attacks on Iran will be short-lived with limited lasting impact on energy and the macro outlook:

• OPEC has substantial spare capacity (there is not an oil supply problem) and is sufficient to compensate for a full loss of Iran’s oil supply.
• Most public pre-war analyses indicate the US military has the resources, capability and will (once the initial attacks on Iran are complete) to prevent an extended closure of the Straits of Hormuz.
• Trump is laser-focused on not losing the Republican’s congressional majority in the November mid-terms as it would hobble the last two years of his presidency. He will not want to see a sustained rise in oil and gasoline prices that will hurt his popularity with the electorate.
  • A prolonged conflict and sustained high energy prices would push inflation higher making it difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates and would likely keep government bond yields high. A sustained rise in energy prices (ie, months rather than weeks) would hurt US and global growth and push unemployment higher.
  • This goes against Trump’s key stated goals of bringing down the cost of living and lowering interest rates.

OPEC Production Capacity and Iran Crude Oil Production

Iran’s response

The hardest part of the analysis is assessing Iran’s medium-term response:

On one side of the equation, Iran will want to make the US, Israel and Middle East states supporting the US feel enough pain that they will think twice before attacking again in the future. On this basis there are incentives to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed for an extended period through periodic drone, missile and other attacks on vessels attempting to traverse the Strait.

On the other side of the equation, currently Iran is being allowed to ship oil near pre-war levels and its energy infrastructure has been mostly left intact. A large portion of Iran’s government budget is financed by energy revenues.

For the long-term survival of the current regime they need these revenues. How this balance of priorities and US capacity to unilaterally keep the Strait open play out, will determine how long energy prices stay high and the severity of the damage to the global economy.

Re-opening the Strait of Hormuz key to outlook

The post Middle East Conflict Key Points: The risk of unintended consequences remains high appeared first on ICG.

ICG, gestore globale di asset alternativi, e Comcreta Group (“Comcreta” o “l’Azienda”), fornitore leader nei servizi di manutenzione infrastrutturale e gestione della vegetazione per il settore ferroviario italiano, annunciano oggi la firma di un accordo di partnership.

ICG European Infrastructure (“ICG Infra”) collaborerà a stretto contatto con il management aziendale, guidato da Francesco Comune, membro della terza generazione della famiglia fondatrice che fino ad oggi ha detenuto la piena proprietà dell’Azienda. La partnership mira a facilitare la prossima fase di espansione di Comcreta, in un contesto di investimenti strategici nelle infrastrutture ferroviarie italiane. Il lavoro si concentra ora sul rafforzamento delle capacità operative, sull’espansione orizzontale del business e sulla ricerca di opportunità di M&A in Italia e all’estero, facendo leva sulla consolidata struttura operativa e sulla comprovata esperienza dell’Azienda.

Comcreta realizza importanti interventi di manutenzione infrastrutturale sulla rete ferroviaria italiana, avvalendosi di una profonda competenza tecnica ed una lunga esperienza nel settore. Il Gruppo opera nell’ambito di Accordi Quadro a lungo termine con Rete Ferroviaria Italiana (RFI), l’ente gestore dell’infrastruttura ferroviaria italiana, garantendo sicurezza ed efficienza attraverso la manutenzione ordinaria, gli interventi di ripristino e la gestione della vegetazione lungo le linee ferroviarie.

Per ICG Infra, questa operazione segue la chiusura del suo secondo fondo da 3,15 miliardi di euro e va ad arricchire il portafoglio di asset del team nel settore della mobilità, che attualmente comprende, tra gli altri, Regional & City Airports e ZEPLUG.

Paul Levêque, Associate Director, European Infrastructure ICG, ha commentato:

Francesco Comune, CEO di Comcreta, ha aggiunto:

Domenico Comune, fondatore di Comcreta, conclude:

ICG è stata assistita da Clearwater (M&A), GPBL (Legal), EY (Financial & Tax Due Diligence), Roland Berger (Commercial), AON (Insurance), ERM (ESG).

Comcreta è stata assistita da Fineurop Soditic (M&A Advisor), Pedersoli Gattai (Legal Advisor), KPMG (Financial Due Diligence), Spada Partners (Tax Advisor).

Per ulteriori informazioni, si prega di contattare:

Clare Glynn
Head of Corporate Communications
+44 20 3545 1395
Clare.Glynn@icgam.com

Maisie Le Masurier
Corporate Communications
+44 20 3545 1624
Maisie.LeMasurier@icgam.com

Pierluigi Picerno
Head of HR/Organization/General Affairs
+39 393 833 2984
p.picerno@comcreta.it

Chi è ICG

ICG (LSE: ICG) è una società globale di gestione patrimoniale alternativa con 127 miliardi di dollari* di asset in gestione e oltre trent’anni di esperienza nella generazione di rendimenti attrattivi. Operiamo in oltre 20 sedi in tutto il mondo e investiamo il capitale dei nostri clienti in diversi settori: capitale strutturato, private equity secondario, debito privato, credito e asset reali. Il nostro team di professionisti crea opportunità differenziate, investe in modo responsabile e genera valore a lungo termine. Collaboriamo con team di management, fondatori e imprenditori con un approccio creativo e orientato alle soluzioni, supportandoli con la nostra esperienza e la flessibilità del nostro capitale. Per maggiori informazioni, visita il nostro sito web e seguici su LinkedIn.

*Dati aggiornati al 31 dicembre 2025.

The post ICG Infra stringe una partnership con Comcreta, azienda leader nella manutenzione ferroviaria appeared first on ICG.

ICG, the global alternative asset manager, and Comcreta Group (“Comcreta” or “the Company”), a leading provider of infrastructure maintenance works and vegetation control management to the Italian railway sector, today announced the signing of a partnership agreement.

ICG European Infrastructure (“ICG Infra”) will work closely with the management team, led by Francesco Comune, a third‑generation member of the founding family which has until now retained full ownership of the Company. The partnership will aim to facilitate the next phase of Comcreta’s expansion, against a backdrop of accelerating investment in Italy’s rail infrastructure. The efforts will focus on strengthening operational capabilities, expanding into adjacent business lines and pursuing accretive M&A opportunities in Italy and abroad, building on the Company’s established platform and track record of delivery.

Comcreta carries out critical infrastructure maintenance across Italy’s railway network, drawing on deep technical expertise and experience in rail infrastructure. The Company operates under long-term framework arrangements with Rete Ferroviaria Italiana (RFI), Italy’s rail infrastructure owner, ensuring safety and efficiency by delivering day-to-day maintenance, repair works and vegetation management along rail corridors.

For ICG Infra this transaction follows the €3.15bn close of its second fund and complements the team’s existing portfolio of assets within the mobility sector, presently comprising Regional & City Airports and ZEPLUG, among others.

Paul Levêque, Associate Director, European Infrastructure at ICG, commented:

Francesco Comune, CEO of Comcreta, added:

Domenico Comune, Comcreta Founder, concludes:

– Ends –

ICG was advised by Clearwater (M&A), GPBL (Legal), EY (Financial & Tax Due Diligence), Roland Berger (Commercial), AON (Insurance), ERM (ESG).

Comcreta was advised by Fineurop Soditic (M&A Advisor), Pedersoli Gattai (Legal Advisor), KPMG (Financial Due Diligence), Spada Partners (Tax Advisor).

For further information please contact:

Clare Glynn
Head of Corporate Communications
+44 20 3545 1395
Clare.Glynn@icgam.com

Maisie Le Masurier
Corporate Communications
+44 20 3545 1624
Maisie.LeMasurier@icgam.com

Pierluigi Picerno
Head of HR/Organization/General Affairs
+39 393 833 2984
p.picerno@comcreta.it

About ICG

ICG (LSE: ICG) is a global alternative asset manager with $127bn* in AUM and more than three decades of experience generating attractive returns. We operate from over 20 locations globally and invest our clients’ capital across Structured Capital; Private Equity Secondaries; Private Debt; Credit; and Real Assets. Our exceptional people originate differentiated opportunities, invest responsibly, and deliver long-term value. We partner with management teams, founders, and business owners in a creative and solutions-focused approach, supporting them with our expertise and flexible capital. For more information visit our website and follow us on LinkedIn.

*As at 31 December 2025.

The post ICG Infra partners with leading railway maintenance provider Comcreta appeared first on ICG.

Luke joins ICG with more than 16 years of experience in global asset management and extensive expertise in serving insurance companies. He most recently served as Managing Director and Global Head of Insurance Investment Solutions at PineBridge Investments, where he led the firm’s global insurance business and delivered strategic solutions to a broad spectrum of clients within this segment. Prior to PineBridge Investments, Luke held senior roles at Deutsche Asset Management, where he focused on investment strategies for insurance clients across the US and Canada.

Luke’s appointment underscores ICG’s continued commitment to consolidating its global client coverage and deepening expertise within CSG, reflecting the firm’s expanding and increasingly diversified suite of strategies. ICG features a number of offerings, including products within Asset-Backed Finance, Direct Lending, and Real Estate, that are particularly suited to insurance companies, with the flexibility to be structured around individual objectives and balance sheet requirements.

Alan Isenberg, Global Head of the Client Solutions Group at ICG, commented:

Luke Schlafly, Global Head of Insurance at ICG, added:

– Ends –

For further information please contact:

Clare Glynn

Head of Corporate Communications

+44 20 3545 1395

Clare.Glynn@icgam.com

Maisie Le Masurier

Corporate Communications

+44 20 3545 1624

Maisie.LeMasurier@icgam.com

About ICG

ICG (LSE: ICG) is a global alternative asset manager with $127bn* in AUM and more than three decades of experience generating attractive returns. We operate from over 20 locations globally and invest our clients’ capital across Structured Capital; Private Equity Secondaries; Private Debt; Credit; and Real Assets. Our exceptional people originate differentiated opportunities, invest responsibly, and deliver long-term value. We partner with management teams, founders, and business owners in a creative and solutions-focused approach, supporting them with our expertise and flexible capital. For more information visit our website and follow us on LinkedIn.

*As at 31 December 2025.

The post ICG appoints Luke Schlafly as Global Head of Insurance Client Solutions appeared first on ICG.

Appointment of Jonathon Bond

Jonathon Bond was Chief Investment Officer at Grosvenor from 2021 to 2025, where he was responsible for the capital invested in Grosvenor’s commercial and investment activities and for its performance. Since late 2025, he has been Executive Chairman of Grosvenor’s Financial Investment Committee. He has previously held several non-executive director positions, including as Senior Independent Director at Jupiter Fund Management plc and Non-Executive Director at Scottish Widows, Standard Life Private Equity Trust plc and Camellia plc.

Jonathon spent over twenty-five years in the alternative investment industry in the UK, Europe and Asia. Jonathon was a founding Partner of Actis LLP, the growth market investor in sustainable infrastructure and private equity. Earlier in his career, he worked as a founding Director of HSBC Private Equity in India and held senior positions at Electra Private Equity Partners and Bain & Company. He was also Executive Chairman of Scandinavian family office Skagen Group from 2013 to 2019 .

Retirement of Stephen Welton and Rosemary Leith

As part of the ongoing succession planning in respect of the Company’s Non-Executive Directors, Stephen Welton and Rosemary Leith will retire from the Board of the Company with effect from the Annual General Meeting to be held on 15 July 2026. Stephen will retire in his ninth year of service in order to comply with the Corporate Governance Code, while Rosemary will retire in her sixth year of service due to the time requirements of a range of other commitments.

Sonia Baxendale, who joined the Board of the Company in January 2025, will become Chair of the Risk Committee in succession to Rosemary Leith.

William Rucker, Chair of ICG, said:

There is no additional information required to be disclosed pursuant to UK Listing Rule 6.4.8R in respect of the appointment of Jonathon Bond.

Ends

Enquiries

Chris Hunt

Head of Corporate Development and Shareholder Relations, ICG

+44 (0) 20 3545 2020

Andrew Lewis

General Counsel and Company Secretary, ICG

+44 (0) 20 3545 1344

Fiona Laffan

Global Head of Corporate Affairs, ICG

+44 (0) 20 3545 1510

The post Board Changes appeared first on ICG.

The Share Buyback, which the Directors consider to be in the best interests of the Company and its shareholders generally, is to enable the Company to issue an equal number of Non-Voting Shares to Amundi in a manner that is non-dilutive to the Company’s existing shareholders. The Non-Voting Shares will have the same nominal value, rights and privileges as the Ordinary Shares, including as relates to dividends and other economic rights, save that the Non-Voting Shares will not have any voting rights. The subscription price for such Non-Voting Shares will be equal to the price paid by the Company for the Ordinary Shares repurchased by the Company pursuant to the Share Buyback, and Amundi will reimburse the Company in cash for reasonable costs and expenses incurred by the Company in connection with the Share Buyback.

The Company intends to undertake the Share Buyback with the following parameters:

• The maximum number of Ordinary Shares repurchased shall not exceed 15,280,825 Ordinary Shares;
• The total consideration of Ordinary Shares repurchased under the Share Buyback programme shall not exceed an aggregate market value of £316 million; and
• The Share Buyback programme will begin on 26 February 2026 and expire on 30 June 2027, provided that it shall expire immediately if the 2025 Authority expires and the 2026 Authority is not granted.

The purpose of the Share Buyback programme is to reduce the issued ordinary share capital of the Company. The Company will hold as treasury shares any Ordinary Shares repurchased in accordance with the provisions of the Companies Act 2006 and will, in due course, cancel the Ordinary Shares in tranches on at least a bi-annual basis, and will not use them for any other purpose prior to cancellation. The Company will make appropriate disclosures during the buyback period of the number of Ordinary Shares that the Company has repurchased and will allot and issue an equal number of Non-Voting Shares to Amundi in accordance with the terms of the Subscription Agreement. The Share Buyback is a pre-condition to the issue of Non-Voting Shares (as defined in the Strategic Partnership Announcement) to Amundi and will be undertaken in tranches, with the corresponding number of Non-Voting Shares being issued to Amundi.

The Non-Voting Shares will be a new class of unlisted non-voting shares in the capital of the Company with a nominal value of £0.2625 each. It is a term of issue of the Non-Voting Shares that on a later transfer by Amundi they will convert into Ordinary Shares, with the same rights and privileges provided under the Company’s Articles of Association, provided the shares are validly transferred via a permitted transfer, being a transfer (i) to the Company; (ii) in a widespread public distribution; (iii) in which no transferee (or group of associated transferees) would acquire 2% or more of any class of voting securities of the Company; or (iv) involving a single transfer in which the transferee would control more than 50% of every class of voting securities of the Company without regard to any transfer from that person.

The Share Buyback will initially be undertaken in accordance with and under the terms of the general authority granted by the Company’s shareholders at its annual general meeting on 16 July 2025 to repurchase a maximum of 29,063,689 Ordinary Shares (representing approximately 10% of the issued share capital of the Company) (the “2025 Authority”). This authority expires at the conclusion of the next annual general meeting of the Company (or, if earlier, the close of business on 30 September 2026). The Company intends to renew the 2025 Authority at the Company’s 2026 annual general meeting (the “2026 Authority”) and purchases effected under the Share Buyback programme following the expiry of the 2025 Authority will be conditional on the receipt of such authority.  

The Share Buyback will be undertaken on the London Stock Exchange and other trading venues, and will be executed within the parameters of the shareholder authorities from time to time and the Market Abuse Regulation 596/2014/EU and the Commission Delegated Regulation 2016/1052/EU (in each case, as it forms part of UK law pursuant to the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018) and the UK Listing Rules, including that the maximum price (excluding expenses) which may be paid per Ordinary Share shall be the higher of (1) an amount equal to 105% of the average of the middle market quotations for an Ordinary Share as derived from the London Stock Exchange Daily Official List for the five business days immediately preceding the day on which that ordinary share is purchased and (2) the higher of the price of the last independent trade and the highest current independent bid for an Ordinary Share on the trading venue where the purchase is carried out.

To facilitate the Share Buyback, the Company has entered into an engagement letter with Merrill Lynch International (“BofA Securities”) pursuant to which the Company has issued an instruction providing BofA Securities with the authority to repurchase Ordinary Shares in the Company subject to certain agreed parameters. The instructions are irrevocable during any closed periods of the Company and therefore, purchases may continue during any closed periods of the Company, and any purchases of Ordinary Shares made during closed periods pursuant to the Share Buyback shall be made independently of and uninfluenced by the Company.

Appointment of Non-Executive Director

Furthermore, in accordance with the Strategic Partnership Announcement, the Board of ICG announces that Vincent Mortier has been appointed as a Non-Executive Director of the Company with effect from 31 March 2026. He will join the Board as the Amundi nominee director and will also serve as a member of the Nominations and Governance Committee.

Vincent is a member of the Amundi Global Management and Executive Committees. He has been Group Chief Investment Officer of Amundi since 2022, before which he was the Group Deputy CIO from 2015. Prior to Amundi he worked at Societe Generale, holding several senior roles including Chief Financial Officer of the Global Banking and Investor Solutions division.

William Rucker, Chair of ICG, said:

There is no additional information required to be disclosed pursuant to UK Listing Rule 6.4.8R in respect of this appointment.

Terms not defined here shall have the meaning as set out in the Strategic Partnership Announcement.

This announcement contains information which prior to this announcement was inside information. The person responsible for arranging for the release of this announcement on behalf of the Company is Andrew Lewis.

Enquiries:

Chris Hunt, Head of Corporate Development and Shareholder Relations, ICG

+44 (0) 20 3545 2020

Media:

Fiona Laffan, Global Head of Corporate Affairs, ICG

+44 20 3545 1510

The post Commencement of Share Buyback Programme and Appointment of Non-Executive Director appeared first on ICG.

ICG’s Asia-Pacific Corporate team is currently investing its fourth vintage fund, with investment professionals located across Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Seoul and Sydney. It targets locally sourced, directly originated and privately negotiated flexible investments in subordinated debt and equity in companies across Asia-Pacific. The team recently realised successful investments in Yudo China Holdings, generating a 2.6x MM, PSB Academy with a 2.9x MM, and SCF Containers with a 2.0x MM.

Sujey joins ICG from PAG, where he served as Deputy Chief Investment Officer and Head of Southeast Asia for its flagship private equity strategy. Having joined the firm in 2013, he played an important role in growing the business since its maiden private equity fund through the sourcing, evaluation and execution of investment opportunities across the APAC region. As a key member of its Investment Committee, Sujey also contributed to PAG’s overall investment strategy, portfolio construction and team development.

His earlier career was spent with TPG Capital in Singapore for six years, focused on Southeast Asian private equity, and in investment banking with Merrill Lynch. Sujey holds bachelor’s and master’s degrees from Stanford University.

Benoît Durteste, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer:

Sujey Subramanian, designated Head of Asia-Pacific Corporate at ICG, said:

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Note: AUM at 31 March 2020 (source: Annual results for the year ended 31 March 2020) and 31 December 2025 (source: Q3 Trading statement for the period to 31 December 2025).

For further information please contact:

Clare Glynn
Head of Corporate Communications
+44 20 3545 1395
Clare.Glynn@icgam.com

Maisie Le Masurier
Corporate Communications
+44 20 3545 1624
Maisie.LeMasurier@icgam.com

About ICG

ICG (LSE: ICG) is a global alternative asset manager with $127bn* in AUM and more than three decades of experience generating attractive returns. We operate from over 20 locations globally and invest our clients’ capital across Structured Capital; Private Equity Secondaries; Private Debt; Credit; and Real Assets. Our exceptional people originate differentiated opportunities, invest responsibly, and deliver long-term value. We partner with management teams, founders, and business owners in a creative and solutions-focused approach, supporting them with our expertise and flexible capital. For more information visit our website and follow us on LinkedIn.

*As at 31 December 2025.

The post ICG appoints Sujey Subramanian as Head of Asia-Pacific Corporate strategy appeared first on ICG.

• Developed economies and markets outperformed expectations in 2025—robust growth, falling inflation, and lower interest rates despite geopolitical shocks and higher US tariffs.
• Europe to benefit from fiscal expansion, monetary easing, lower energy prices, and positive real income growth; impact of US tariffs limited and manageable.
• Economic resilience set to continue in 2026, supported by strong household, corporate, and bank balance sheets, as well as easier fiscal and monetary policy.
• Biggest threat: potential turmoil in US government debt market amid high deficits and no credible plan for stabilisation; possible ripple effects through risk assets but likely offsetting central bank interventions.
• Sustained US government debt concerns could trigger further US dollar weakness and gold price upside, as investors grow uneasy with the US fiscal trajectory.
• Private market investors remain well positioned—solid company fundamentals and less-cyclical sector focus insulate against public market volatility, but careful selection is crucial as idiosyncratic risks rise.

Strong economic and market performance in 2025—but will it continue in 2026?

Despite geopolitical upheaval and the sharp rise in US import tariffs, the US, Europe, and UK economies are estimated to have grown by a better-than-expected 2.0%, 1.6%, and 1.4% in 2025, with inflation falling to 2.7%, 2.0% and 3.2% respectively. Resilient growth, resilient earnings and falling inflation and interest rates helped drive risk assets higher, with the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 600, FTSE 100, and most other major market equity benchmarks ending the year near all-time highs and credit spreads tightening back towards historic lows.

Strong growth and falling rates have supported markets

Economic resilience to continue

While economic growth across most major economies will likely face headwinds from continued high geopolitical and US policy uncertainty in 2026, we think the economic resilience of last year will continue in 2026. Strong aggregate company, household, and bank balance sheets, together with stimulatory fiscal policy and lower interest rates in the major developed economies should provide strong buffers to downside growth risks and provide a continued stable operating environment for private companies in 2026. 

Strong household balance sheets provide downside growth buffer

Potential turmoil in government debt markets biggest risk to markets in 2026

In our view, one of the biggest risks to markets in 2026 is the risk of turbulence in government debt markets that ripples through to other asset classes. The US is a particular risk in our view, given that it has been consistently running fiscal deficits in the 7%–8% of GDP range (based on IMF data) in recent years, debt to GDP is currently at its highest level since World War Two and—most critically—there is currently not a credible plan to rein in US fiscal deficit and the US government debt level.

Unsustainable US fiscal deficits

On IMF forecasts most European (and the UK) government debt levels are expected to increase only slightly between now and 2030. The US is a stand-out exception, with the IMF forecasting US debt to GDP to rise by a further 18 percentage points of GDP by 2030. So far, the US government bond market has been relatively stable. However, the weakness of the US dollar over the past year and rise in the gold price indicates not all investors are comfortable with the US government debt trajectory.

Interest payments taking up increasing share of government revenues

Although a potential upset in sovereign bond markets is one of the greatest risks to markets in 2026 in our view, we think the market disruption caused by sustained US government bond selling would likely lead to a resumption of Fed buying of US treasuries and other interventions that would ultimately stabilise markets. The cost of such intervention would likely be further US dollar weakness (and gold price upside).

A number of Trump administration officials have advocated a weak US dollar as a way to boost US export competitiveness and to bring manufacturing back to the US. One of the more notable advocates of a weak US dollar has been Stephen Miran, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under Trump and recently appointed member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors (A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System).

US dollar at risk as debt rises and Fed independence under threat

Therefore, while we think the risk of public market volatility remains elevated, we think private markets investors will remain relatively sheltered. Resilient global economic growth, the continued outperformance of the less-cyclical services sectors that most private markets investors invest in, and tailwinds from easier fiscal and monetary policy should provide a continued supportive investing environment for private market investors in our view.

Corporate balance sheets (in aggregate) remain strong

US growth to remain resilient in 2026 as tax cuts support consumer and business spending, with sustained high government bond yields a negative wild card

Growth support from the lagged impact of tax cuts in last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act and still healthy aggregate household and corporate balance sheets should provide growth support in 2026. Non-tech related US business investment and private consumption may continue to be negatively affected by the lagged impact of higher import tariffs on prices and supply chains and sustained high government bond yields. However, we think these potential growth drags will be offset by expansionary fiscal policy, continued strong technology-related investment and spending growth by middle and higher income consumers benefitting from tax cuts and the wealth effect.

Europe will likely see strong performance in 2026

More pronounced fiscal expansion, the lagged impact of easier monetary policy in 2025, lower energy prices and increased policy cohesion is expected to drive growth higher. Although France, Italy and the UK are in the process of reducing fiscal deficits in order to stabilise debt levels, Germany, and most of the rest of Europe are in a position to further expand fiscal policy—with defence and infrastructure two key areas of focus.

Europe has ample space to boost fiscal stimulus

The recent watershed changes in German and EU-wide fiscal policy to allow a significant rise in infrastructure and defence spending, marks a once-in-a-generation shift in fiscal policy. This should provide a medium to long-term boost to Europe’s growth rate – and at the very least provide downside growth protection. More recently, the announcements of the shift in policy led to a discernible improvement in business and consumer sentiment. This shift in policy should help offset any secondary effects from the ongoing global tariff turmoil.

While some companies in manufacturing and industrial sub-sectors may be negatively affected by higher US tariffs (e.g. autos, industrial machinery, chemicals and pharmaceuticals), private markets investors tend to have very limited exposure to these areas—with the bulk of investments in less cyclical services related businesses that are well-insulated from the direct effects of the trade war.

The UK will benefit from falling interest rates and continued positive real income growth

The UK will have to contend with the impact of higher taxes, but healthy household balance sheets, positive real income growth, more aggressive BoE rate cuts, and declining government bond yields should keep a floor under growth and sustain a stable company operating environment in 2026. Although the UK government has been criticized for raising taxes in its latest budget, the move to reduce fiscal deficits and stabilise the country’s long-term debt profile has paid off, helping to further reduce the UK government debt yield premium over equivalent US rates. Lower government bond yields (assuming no further disorderly moves in US and/or Japan government bond markets) should provide further support to household and corporate balance sheets and support growth later in 2026.

Will Trump’s latest tariff threats derail growth?

In late January 2026, US President Donald Trump threatened an additional 10% tariff on the imports of eight countries that sent troops to Greenland, including Germany, France, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland, the Netherlands, and the UK. A few days later he retracted the threat. However, fears linger that he may bring tariffs back if he doesn’t get what he wants in Greenland. Therefore, below we present an updated table of the potential target countries and their exposure to the US goods market. As we highlighted in our trade war analyses last year, for most countries in Europe and the UK goods exports to the US are relatively small as a percent of GDP.

Higher US tariffs manageable for most countries

Country and sector exposure to the US market

Therefore, even if the threatened tariffs are implemented, the direct economic impact is likely to be quite small, as was the case when the US imposed tariffs in 2025. Of course, certain sectors such as the auto sector and some segments of the chemical, pharmaceutical and industrial machinery sectors, and US-exposed companies operating in those sectors could be affected. But at a headline GDP growth level the direct impact is estimated to be small, with most estimates putting the impact of an additional 10% tariff on US goods imports from Europe at around 0.1%-0.2% of GDP. If Europe were to retaliate strongly (not our base case), higher domestic costs, supply chain disruptions and potential higher financial market volatility could add to the impact, but our base is that any European response will be calibrated to minimise domestic disruption.

ECB monetary easing should support European growth in 2026

Fiscal and monetary policy will support growth in 2026, but government bond yields are likely to remain high, putting pressure on some companies and households

The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate 75bp in 2025. Further rate cuts are likely in the coming months, but perhaps not quite as many as the nearly 100bps swap markets are currently pricing, given the continued stickiness of services inflation and the continued impact of tariff increases on goods prices.

The ECB has been able to cut rates by 200bp over the past year as inflation has moved quickly down to its 2% target. With the ECB’s benchmark rate now at 2%, on our base case that economic growth holds up on more expansionary fiscal policy, lower energy prices and the lagged impact of the past year’s monetary easing, rates are probably at or near bottom.

The BoE, like the Fed, has been grappling with stubbornly sticky services inflation. Despite the stickiness of inflation, it managed to push through 100bps of cuts in 2025. Given the more-fiscally-prudent-than-expected government Budget announced in November, signs of cooling in the labour market and a likely faster decline in inflation later in 2026, larger BoE cuts than the 50bp currently priced into the swaps market for 2026 and a further narrowing of the UK government bond yield premium over equivalent US bonds seem likely.

Government bond yields likely to stay higher for longer

Private company fundamentals remain strong, systemic crisis risks are low, but idiosyncratic risks on the rise

Data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) shows that corporate debt service ratios in the US, Europe and the UK are falling and remain well below 2008 levels. On their analysis (Aggregate debt servicing and the limit on private credit), corporate debt service ratios provide ‘highly accurate early warning signals’ for systemic financial crises. On their most recent data this risk appears low (see chart above).

ICG proprietary data also shows relatively healthy private company fundamentals, with median EBITDA growth in the US and Europe (including the UK) holding up well and interest coverage ratios stabilising at comfortable levels on our most recent aggregated data through Q3 2025. While aggregate balance sheet and EBITDA trends are solid, idiosyncratic sector and company risks appear to be rising, putting a larger than usual premium on careful investment selection and downside protection.

Private company fundamentals at an aggregate level remain strong

Implications for private market investors

Given relatively high equity valuations, tight credit spreads and potential risks in major developed economy sovereign bond markets—particularly in the US given its current debt trajectory and concerns about Fed independence—we think the risk of higher for longer, longer maturity government bond yields, volatility in global public markets and further US dollar weakness remain high. Although the risk of market volatility remains elevated, we think private markets investors will remain relatively sheltered. Resilient global economic growth, the continued outperformance of the less-cyclical services sectors that most private markets investors are exposed to, and tailwinds from easier fiscal and monetary policy should provide a continued constructive operating environment for private market investors in our view.

Go deeper

• Follow us on LinkedIn or sign up to our email newsletter to receive notification of future macro and private markets research
• Watch or read ICG CEO & CIO Benoît Durteste’s September 2025 interview on Bloomberg’s Opening Trade, where he commented that Europe has a relatively favourable environment for investment
• Find out about the proprietary ICG Private Company Database, for which the next edition will be available in the coming weeks via the ICG Client Lounge

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